Bracket projection
Knockout slots fill in once group play wraps on June 27. Below is the Monte-Carlo projection of who advances from each group (top 2 + best 8 third-place finishers), based on current standings and Polymarket odds for remaining group matches.
Projected advancement per group
Group A
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 58% | 83% | 97% |
| South Korea | 38% | 81% | 97% |
| Czechia | 2% | 25% | 64% |
| South Africa | 1% | 10% | 22% |
Group B
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 50% | 83% | 88% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 27% | 68% | 81% |
| Switzerland | 21% | 41% | 68% |
| Qatar | 2% | 8% | 23% |
Group C
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 39% | 74% | 92% |
| Scotland | 26% | 51% | 89% |
| Brazil | 34% | 71% | 85% |
| Haiti | 2% | 4% | 19% |
Group D
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 74% | 91% | 99% |
| Australia | 22% | 73% | 96% |
| Türkiye | 2% | 17% | 34% |
| Paraguay | 2% | 19% | 33% |
Group E
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 63% | 91% | 99% |
| Ivory Coast | 34% | 84% | 96% |
| Ecuador | 1% | 11% | 41% |
| Curaçao | 1% | 15% | 31% |
Group F
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 45% | 73% | 96% |
| Japan | 33% | 66% | 87% |
| Netherlands | 20% | 52% | 70% |
| Tunisia | 2% | 8% | 18% |
Group G
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 38% | 60% | 86% |
| New Zealand | 29% | 57% | 68% |
| Egypt | 14% | 35% | 62% |
| Iran | 19% | 47% | 52% |
Group H
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 45% | 68% | 94% |
| Uruguay | 37% | 63% | 66% |
| Cape Verde | 14% | 34% | 62% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4% | 35% | 44% |
Group I
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | 57% | 90% | 96% |
| Norway | 33% | 66% | 85% |
| Senegal | 10% | 42% | 76% |
| Iraq | 0% | 2% | 9% |
Group J
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 44% | 70% | 79% |
| Austria | 25% | 59% | 74% |
| Algeria | 21% | 45% | 65% |
| Jordan | 10% | 26% | 46% |
Group K
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 34% | 59% | 68% |
| Portugal | 26% | 53% | 66% |
| Uzbekistan | 21% | 46% | 63% |
| DR Congo | 19% | 42% | 62% |
Group L
| Team | 1st | Top 2 | Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 65% | 87% | 92% |
| Croatia | 20% | 58% | 67% |
| Ghana | 8% | 28% | 50% |
| Panama | 7% | 27% | 42% |